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uncertainty

published 2025 feb 18


formal structures →

← constitutive rules


uncertainty is a critical part of every game.

at a macro-level, it is the overall outcome of the game.

at a micro-level, it is the specific operations of chance within a designed system.

though there is a paradox: decision have an impact because of the uncertain outcome. making decisions consists of selecting one strategy.

degrees of uncertainty

the first degree of uncertainty is uncertainty itself. essentially, players have no idea as to the outcome of the game.

the second degree of uncertainty is risk. this means that the game has some uncertainty, but players know the nature of the game.

the third degree of uncertainty is certainty. this makes the game hardly playable as meaningful engagement with the chances of the game don't exist.

games of pure certainty are extremely rare, same with pure risk and pure uncertainty. most games will possess some combination of risk and uncertainty.